The Real Move Begins Before the Visible Move

Most people think strategy starts when the action starts.

It doesn’t.

I learned this from the field manuals I'd read during my military service, from playing chess in school and from years of playing real-time strategy games.

Before launching an assault, you don’t just charge forward and hope everything works out.

You prepare the ground first.

Move the artillery into position, study the route towards the objective and check that all the support and resources are ready.

Look at where things may go wrong.

And most importantly, keep a safe route open in case the situation turns bad and you need to pull back, regroup or change direction. This was reinforced in my mind when we had to adapt Huawei’s planned physical experiential activations into an online campaign instead.

The actual assault is only the visible part.

Most of the real work happened before it began.

The same applies in business

Before entering a new market, launching a product, approaching a major client or committing to a new project, it’s important that we need to understand the ground we are moving into.

What needs to be in place first?

What support will the plan require?

How much time, money and attention will it consume?

What “safe” assumptions are we relying on?

And what happens when reality doesn’t follow the plan?

This doesn’t mean waiting until everything is perfect. That day will never ever come.

It simply means reducing the risks we could, and should have seen coming before serious resources are committed.

Never assume

One lesson I have learned is simple, never assume.

A sergeant used to tell this us over and over again, 'when you assume, you make an @ss out of u and me.'

Don’t assume the market wants what you are selling.

Don’t assume the partner will deliver just because they sound confident.

Don’t assume you know the market simply because you have spent years operating in it. 

Always dig deeper.

Don’t assume the budget will be enough, the team has the capacity or the client will decide on time.

And don’t assume that because a plan looks good on paper, it will work the same way in the real world.

Even the best plans may not survive first contact with reality.

Assumptions are sometimes necessary. But they should be identified, tested and watched closely.

An untested assumption can quietly become the weakest part of the entire plan.

In fact the only thing we can safely assume is that we will never know everything. 

The pre-mortem

One important part of strategy is the pre-mortem.

Before starting, imagine that the plan has already failed, badly.

Then ask ourselves these questions:

What most likely caused it to fail?

Maybe the market wasn’t ready. The partner didn’t deliver, the budget ran out, the team became stretched, the decisions took too long.

Or an important assumption turned out to be wrong.

This is not negative thinking, it is preparation.

A pre-mortem helps us find weak points while there is still enough time to do something about them. It also helps us notice the early warning signs before the damage becomes serious.

But identifying risks is not enough.

A good strategy must also leave room to adapt.

Can the plan be reduced? Can it be reshaped? Is there another route towards the same objective?

Can we pause without losing everything? 

At what point should we withdraw?

A plan that only works when everything goes right is not a strong plan. It is a hope.

The lesson

A good strategy does not remove uncertainty.

It prepares us to move despite it.

It creates better conditions for success, protects important resources (like time or money) and gives the decision-maker viable options when the situation changes.

The visible move may be what everyone sees.

But the strategy began much, much earlier.

The Clarity takeaway

Do not make the move until you have prepared the ground, tested the assumptions, understood the route and protected the way back.

Clarity Associates helps businesses examine opportunities, challenge assumptions and prepare for what may happen after the decision is made.

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